Excess deaths are materially higher than can be explained by either a change in benchmark or the effect of low winter mortality in 2018/19.

Avoid crowded spaces, close proximity to others, low ventilation environments and long durations (inter alia ...)

Vaccine progress, brain infection, Tocilizumab and various technical reports - Imperial College, LSHTM, ONS.

Joanne Meusz and Stuart McDonald discuss various ways that actuaries have been involved in the response to the pandemic.

Our regular Friday update with a summary of the key papers and articles that we’ve looked at recently.

For R to fall below 1, there must be an improvement in public compliance with quarantine. This bulletin discusses containment strategies.

As part of Longevity Week 2020, Stuart McDonald is interviewed by David Collinson on the impact of COVID-19 on mortality.

The COVID‑19 Actuaries Response Group provides a regular Friday update with a summary of the key papers and articles .

Not all nurses and doctors have the expertise to care for ICU patients. UK beds are close to capacity and the limits are inflexible.

Matthew Edwards discusses how the issue of face masks may indicate a mistaken approach to the precautionary principle.

This update covers vaccines, testing, antibodies and long COVID.

Policy responses involving isolation should compare ‘COVID mortality’ against ‘socially isolated mortality'.

A brief look at NHS hospital case reporting. Drivers of hospital admissions. Source of infections.

Friday update with a curated list of the key papers and articles that we’ve looked at recently.

UK case numbers have been increasing significantly, leading to conjecture that this may be driven by False Positives. We disagree.

We explore how superspreading is an important contributor to R and focus on it may lead to suppression at a lower economic cost.

Misinformation | Vaccines on hold | Anti-viral drugs | Hospital infections | Excess mortality | ONS reports | Great Barrington Declaration

In this article, we explore the mutation potential of SARS-CoV-2 in the face of selective pressure.

Matthew Edwards discusses heterogeneity and how it has shaped the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Matthew Edwards explains 'nowcasting' and how it relates to the Covid-19 pandemic.