Deaths, Excess Deaths and Statistics

Bulletin 53 | By John Roberts and Matthew Edwards

In this bulletin we note the recent news about the unreliability of daily COVID-19 death figures in England, and re-state our belief that excess deaths are the most reliable way of gauging the pandemic’s impact. Hence, nothing has changed – it remains the case that over 60,000 have (very likely) died from COVID-19. We have analysed the difference between ONS and PHE-reported deaths, tracing the growing difference over time. Although the figures are different, the total erroneous reporting to date changes nothing. We are concerned that reduced public trust in the numbers, or Government advice, may have unwarranted consequences.

C19 ARG Further Death Thoughts 19July202

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