Bulletin 87 | Yifei Gong and Stuart McDonald
Nine groups in the UK have been prioritised to be vaccinated in the first phase. In this bulletin, we consider the logic of the priority order by examining the deaths to date in each group where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
We find that the priority groups, which comprise less than half the UK population, make up 99% of the observed COVID deaths. The top two priority groups alone cover two-thirds of the deaths.
For each group, we estimate the number of vaccinations required to prevent one COVID death, finding that it increases rapidly as we move down the priority order. Our simple analysis lends strong support to the priority order determined, but should not be interpreted as suggesting that the lower risk groups do not need vaccination.